I was just wondering what many of you think is going to be the future of animation, like things that are not yet possible or things that are possible but don’t work very well because of slowness or glitches. Like game engine future. And what may lie ahead for the Blender Institute, is it possible that it may one day not be open source? What will that do to the community?
the future would probably be that we can do 3D animations (the ones that looks realistic like Avatar),and be able to do realistic Explosions and thinks like that, with only an modifier, the GE future would be awesome, just imagine, i think a lot of things of it:
1: We could be able to make Explosions with particles
2: Use hair and fur
3. AI with an actuator
4: Water fluids, Somke, Fire and other things with particles
and other millions of things more…
I think the animation development would happen in the web. Web applications will become the printing machine of final product. You need a walk cycle, you get it from the web application. You need a material, you get it from the repocitory of web application. You change the function of a tool, you do it for the web application.
Blender will always be open source. It can’t go back, noone can buy the rights or anything like that so don’t worry. When Ton recieved community contributions to purchase the source code initialy, he took care of those concerns.
As to the future of animation…I think it is here now. Animation, particularly 3d, has entered into everything, you can’t even play a slot machine it seems without it being animated!
We now live in a world where “awesome computing power, and GPU power, is cheap.” And it is literally everywhere.
Thanks very much to Blender, the capability to produce professional-grade work product is also everywhere.
Ironically, this is helping to make 3D “commonplace.” It’s no longer the novelty it once was. The bar has been raised. Again …
I hope the game engine will be fully production ready after this, do you think the next open project will be a game or movie? I think it will probably be another movie, since that is what they focus on most, but it would be cool if after sintel, like next year or two years from now they make a video game again, yo frankie was awesome, wish I could have been around in that time.
well, if Blender absolutely can not become closed-source because of how Ton set it up, then i’m very happy - thanks a ton, Ton! (sorry, didn’t mean to play with words, I had originally written it as “tonne”, which is the metric way, but…couldn’t resist :D)
however, if 3D becomes commonplace…what will happen to all those independent artists who make a living with 3D? hmm…
Blender is licensed under the GPL, which provides an express clause that source code for the software can’t be closed. They can begin a new branch under another license, but old code under GPL will always remain free. As for remaining “alive”, it’d depend on how much effort would the community take to make that happen.
If 3D and 3D scanners are a commodity, perhaps 3D animators would become mocap technicians and 3D scanner operators?
well, i thought of it yesterday, and i think it might not become so commonplace after all - look at computers in general, there are still a lot of people (i think) that don’t really know how they work, and there are lots of independent businesses that deal with computers - cleaning them up, setting them up, repairs, tech-support, etc.
again, this is just what i’ve noticed, but I very well might be missing a whole lot of the picture
so maybe 3D won’t become so commonplace after all…but then again, maybe it will…no real way of telling in advance, is there?
If animation doesn’t interest a person, then they are not going to spend all that time learning it, just a fact, there are people who like it, and a larger group that don’t, its just the way it is.
This is just a broad philosophy on 3D so I’m speaking in general:
Well, I think the whole point of 3D and every other aspect of computer arts at the moment is replacing and improving reality. So in essence I believe that the long-term goals of the 3D industry should be to simulate the physical world and give users a experience as close as possible to reality. Or even manipulate its laws untill we achieve something different, something better(?). I might even use the term ‘fun’. We are living in a world of entertainment. People work on projects that develop entertainment and then go home to be entertained. Our reason for living is systematically being replaced with a huge playground.
Our universe is in any case a illusion, a very real and tangible illusion and we have little control over it. Why not replace it with something more controlable? I believe incorporating a transhumanist approach to the extend that the borders between real and unreal, natural and unnatural, right and wrong, white and black becomes so blurred that we don’t even realise it. And then we won’t be so edgy when replacing body parts with better synthetic parts. Having a genetic human race of perfect beings that can reach incredible ages, lift 10 times or even a 100 times their own weight. People who don’t need oxygen. I believe it is all HUMANLY possible.
This is going to sound strange but I don’t give a sheit about dolphins, whales, forests or whatever. If technolgy (or 3D applications and hardware) can achieve the possibility of me standing in a room with life-like dolphins swimming by or whatever, then I’d prefer it much more then driving out and getting wet to see a bunch of mammals splashing around. Yes, we all need excercise but believe me when I tell you that more effective and entertaining forms of excercises will be developed. Already I’m getting less excersise due to the fun factor my 23inch monitor gives me. I love physical excercise but I go to the gym (a enclosed space with entertainemnt and excercise systems) because the temperature is usually regulated, I have all the facillities I need and I can run 10km while wathing TV. Hell yeah!
A lot of sports freaks and trail hikers etc. here might disagree. But I don’t give a rats ass about your oppinions because your generation/type will systematically dissapear as we succumb more and more to the godlike form we envelope through technology. You are still living in a primate state of mind while evolution is passing you by. Wake up!
People in 500 years will break a hard sweat climbing everest in their living rooms. Or they might not even break a sweat, just float through 3D interpreted and textured high-res versions of realtime satellite images of Everest. Or whatever technology is like by then.
Dolphins, and most natural animals are great nice to look at and maybe entertaining but they are a neccessary product of nature’s life cycle to sustain us untill our development is far enough to achieve autonomy from it (from nature I mean). We are already starting to realise the potential and hazards of using recycling processes, free energy etc.
What people don’t realise is that we are far more impressed about our own poly filled 3D scenes than the natural equivalent. Why? Because we are in creative ecstacy of what we as humans and our creations (computers) are capable of. Think about it. I’ve got tons of 3D images of natural scenes that I am in awe of. Not only are they technically perfect but they are human/computer made! Nature is well, nature. If I can exploit nature and create a alternative better version then why not?
The only problem is we might (note) destroy ourselves before we reach that utopia. But the reality of it is humanly feasible.:yes:
Blender’s contribution to this utopian world is the fact that it is powerful and accessable. Thats big and I don’t think many people realise just what a enormous influence the free availability of this program has on our culture (or will). Even if there is a lot of nonsense art and animation out in the world the fact is, it is there and more and more people are awakening to the potential as well as current limits of the 3D world. It helps to develop a standard of fashion and aesthetic trend whereby 3D incorporates EVERYTHING. And with good reason as I explained.
Just yanking your chains! :evilgrin:
I don’t believe this process or philosophy is right. I love creation. Period.
Blender is one of many necassary evils to work in or for the system.
(sorry for rambling like this. I think short term goals are nice but when looking at the BIG picture things really get exciting and weird
godlike, you say? Stupid humans? Only if like old futile and vein greek gods – and I no doubt humans would bring Ragnarök in no time. Technology will surely provide the tools for us to attain that kind of power, but nothing of a godlike intelligence or moral.
I think it’s more likely we develop into permanently sleeping babies in a pool of ooze serving as batteries or into oversized fatties in permanent vacation and alienation. Some people will just prefer to keep their bodies and minds healthy and sane to prevent that… but good luck on your ego trip!
I’ve been in the data processing business now for :ba: years, and the only thing that I can say with absolute certainty is this:
- Everything changes.
- It changes every couple of years.
- When it changes, it changes completely, such that very little of what you’ve learned so far seems to apply. Like Alice in Wonderland, you are doomed to run very fast just to say in the same place.
- Your college degree is useless.
- It’s fun. Scary as hell, but fun.
When “the next new thing” comes along, it’s unbelievably new … and Wall Street and everybody else promptly goes ga-ga over it, until … it becomes routine. Long about that time, everyone starts to settle down with the idea that “this is now the way it’s gonna be forever,” and … the same thing happens all over again.
Blender just happens to be a huge change-agent. A very powerful 3D package now costs everybody in the world literally nothing. Suddenly, everybody’s ready to start making their own 3D movies and games. And-d-d-d-d… then the whole game is set to change again, completely, in a way that will only seem “perfectly obvious” in hindsight.
It never ends. You ought to figure that your present skills have at most a ten-year life span, if you never quite stop “running to keep up.” Don’t worry too much about it… keeps the ol’ love-handles away… and by the way, better hurry.
2-bit graphics and a buzzer. That is the future.
what I find interesting to think about is what will happen to Blender when the core developers
such as Ton and others are getting told and will retire ?