Snow last year... now fire all over the place.

I just remembered that this time last year we here in the Blue Mountains which is just west of Sydney, (Australia) got a freak, heavy snow fall and that bang in the middle of spring. Now and after an exceptionally dry and warm winter, no snow and very little rain, we’re fighting massive bush fires which have already destroyed over two hundred homes. It’s still unusually hot for this time of year but the strong winds that fanned the fires have died down for now but are predicted to return and gust up to one hundred kilometres per hour within the next forty eight hours… so what does one do? Break out Blender and work on the animation project of course!

Seems weather is crazy all over anymore. I never know what to expect from the weather here anymore. Well if the fire keeps spreading, steal a kids wagon and put ur computer on it and run for safety. Gotta have your priorities in place. =) Hope that fire gets under control soon. Good luck.

we have trees dying here old pines, because of little rain but i was told around 1900’s the river here almost dried up. Maybe it is just that we are more informed. I do not know.
It burns here every year. they say it helps the pine seed to open.
Good luck there.

I’ve read on various sites that Australian environmental regulations prevent homeowners from cutting down trees right next to their homes (which leads to more homes being destroyed), here in the US, part of the problem is that the natural fire cycle that used to be a typical part of the forest ecosystem was suppressed to the point where they became dangerously overgrown as well as having a dangerous buildup of fuel (there are a few places where they’re even being thinned to restore them to their former state and avoid such destructive burning), modern day globalization also didn’t help because of how it brought destructive creatures like Pine-borers.

Here in Kansas we don’t have much in the way of forests, so any fires that come up are usually grass fires that are easily contained, in terms of weather though, we just had our first snow flurry event last Friday which was out first October snowflakes since the 90’s (which was a big change from the 80 degree weather at the beginning of the month). Had it only been a degree or two cooler, 2013 would’ve became the year of our earliest measurable snow on record (which would be on top of the fact that we had our latest ever measurable snow half a year ago as well, long range forecasts are also calling for a Winter that might be cold and snowy, so it seems we might be starting to return to how they were back in the 70’s, or before I was born).

Didn’t parts of Australia just have massive heat and fire one year ago??

Yep, last year in the State of Victoria and from memory, more or less 170 dead. The debate here is now whether these fires and other events such as massive floods these past years in the States of Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland are climate change enhanced. Not ‘caused’ by climate change but made worse as is possibly the case with the current fires which are massive for this time of year. What has happened is over the past four years we had three very wet summers which increased the amount of fuel available to any future fire and then a very dry winter. These past weeks temperatures have been high as were wind speeds which creates the perfect conditions for a fire storm. The result is 200 houses destroyed and over 100 damage. So far only one person crispy but it’s not over, things are quiet now with overcast sky and low wind but two of the fires have merged, one was already 300 kilometres in circumference, and we expect the wind to pick up over the next 48 hours and gusts of up to 100 kilometres per hour are predicted.
The strategy is of course to just run if the fire front get’s any where close to where I am, grap the computer but no boy next door with a wagon…

True, there are regulations preventing people from just chopping down trees and that fact is often used by climate change deniers to blame the greenies for loss of life and properties rather than asking why weather patterns are changing and destructive events are becoming more extreme and unpredictable. The mining companies, espescially the coal miners, are politically very powerful here in Australia and we have a totally hopeless media which for the most part is nothing more than printers and broadcasters of corporate and government media releases.

Which part of the world are you in Kazinger?

Does Australia even have fire and temperature data at any point before the 20th century (because you will need to go back thousands of years to determine if the last decade is unique in terms of weather)?

Here in the United States for example, there’s been evidence from Paleoclimatology that Texas and the surrounding area had a 60 year mega-drought back in the 12th century, recent years here have seen drought and heat as well, but it appeared as a part of a longer term cycle that gives us such an event every 20 to 30 years (the 1930’s had very hot and dry years, same with the 50’s, followed by the early 80’s and showing up again two years ago). I expect that it might reappear once again in the 2030’s or 2040’s, because it came and went like clockwork in the last century.

so it seems we might be starting to return to how they were back in the 70’s, or before I was born).

One must ever bear in mind that a year or two does not a climate make.

Im in southern California. We are considered desert mountains. We have the fire department inspect every year and you want your property cleared of brush and dead growth or it gets expensive. A guy I work with drove water truck on the Rim fire up north but I have not had a chance to ask how it was.
I do not think I have heard reports like “170 dead” ever.
Just evacuate when told. I hope it will be over soon there.

But you can get an idea of where the climate might eventually go. You look at the studies and find cycles on top of cycles on top of cycles (including ones that last thousands of years).

Decades of climate study later and we still haven’t found all of the puzzle pieces yet, which is why it borders on ridiculous if you think we’ll know in a detailed way how things will be 100 years out and beyond.

You can tell a blender user when “cycles” mean something other than that of the intended meaning. “Cycles” lol.

But you can get an idea of where the climate might eventually go.

That is an “interesting” assertion but I can’t image that you can cite a single peer reviewed paper that supports the idea that two years weather data can be used to project future climate. Kinda sounds like Bao2science to me :slight_smile:

Not looking at two years of weather data, but looking at it in the context of perhaps the 100 years of recorded data before it.

You look at the past 100 years of data and you notice that there is a sine wave pattern based on long-term oceanic patterns such as the PDO and AMO (the PDO being 30 year periods alternating between the dominance of El Nino and La Nina), the El Nino dominant years we had in the 80’s, 90’s, and 00’s are really starting to look they are over with because of the increased La Nina events starting in 2008).

The PDO right now is already negative, but the real cooling is expected to come when the AMO flips (which right now it’s still positive), so it’s not extrapolating from two years, it’s two years treated as a continuation of the overall picture starting at the turn of the 20th century.

Near-freezing up here, north of the equator. Brrrr… Can I borrow a cup of spring/summer from you, please? :slight_smile:

The number killed in last year’s bushfires in the state of Victoria was actually 173 and Ace Dragon, we do have data going back to the 19[SUP]th[/SUP] century.
I see reading through responses that a few still question climate change and that’s fine. We can have our doubts but we have to admit extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and unpredictable and that it appears a majority of scientists attribute this to anthropogenic climate change. NASA has a section of its website devoted to climate change and you’ll find on that a graph of CO2 levels over the past 600 thousand years and which clearly shows that yes indeed, levels go up and down but have never during that period been above 285 parts per million. The current level is near or now at 400 parts per million and that’s happened since industrialisation. The thing is that we are the last generation that can still make the decisions needed to hopefully avoid our descendants finding themselves living on a different planet. One straight out of science fiction and unfortunately not made in Blender for entertainment purposes only. By the time today’s toddlers arrive at voting age it will probably be too late to do anything other than mitigate the worst. I think we really have to ere on the side of caution and not gamble on our children’s future.
Anyway, update on what’s happening here in the Blue Mountains… we actually had lightning and rain last night which would have taken a lot of the heat out of the fires but now at near midday the sky is clear, the wind has picked up with strong gusts and the State Premier, the bloke in charge, has urged people living where I am to get the f…k out if they can. LOL Myself I’ll just continue keeping an eye open for smoke, flames or embers in the sky whilst working on my short animation.

First frost was night before last. First time it’s been that late in the 23 years that we’ve lived here. But that’s anecdotal and irrelevant in terms of climate.

As you point out Ace there are a number known climate cycles. But there is that hockey stick thing.

The Hockey Stick is dependent on the idea that tree rings make for good data, but there’s been plenty of articles showing why they are not. (affected by temperature, rainfall, and CO2, but mainly because CO2 makes for aerial fertilization which makes for more rapid trunk growth).

So it might be that more CO2 means less rainfall, guess what, the CO2 will allow the plants to grow more with less water (as also seen by how areas once inhospitable to trees are now seeing them).

Higher temperatures (providing we do see a bit more warming), no problem at all because of rising CO2 levels.
I was almost surprised myself when I first saw the graph, quite something if seeing highly-elevated levels mean you see Aspen trees needing temperatures near 100 degrees for maximum photosynthesis.

There’s also plenty of non-politicized articles here. Covers things like Paleoclimatology and if global warming really is as dangerous as it seems.


Also, I do wonder if the idea of seeing more extreme and unpredictable weather than ever before is an artifact of the more detailed recording of data, higher population densities, and the fact that extreme events were likely not recorded in the same vein that they are now before the late 19th century.

I find the fundamental physics on which CO2 driven GW is built to be completely convincing. (With the understanding that if one is willing to go outside peer reviewed journals, one can ‘prove’ or ‘disprove’ virtually anything, and therefore nothing.)

There seems to be a good deal of kerfuffle over recent year to year declines in global temperatures. CO2s global diminution of the planet’s albedo should rise monotonicly but those cycles of which you speak continue regardless. At this time the most likely explanation for those recent year to year declines is that the net effect of those and other drivers is temporarily overwhelming the impact of the higher CO2 levels. But science is not about certainties, it is, in a way, more about an asymptotic approach there to. And twenty more years of data should make things clearer.

The trick, of course, is one may be dead before one is certain. Such is life;)