I haven’t dabbled in the stock market for over a year, but today, I decided I would hop back in.
The market is a little strong for my taste, last time I got AMD at a bargain of just 7.50 a share, and it skyrocketed 200% in a year and a half, and I sold.
Today, finding a gem is a bit tougher, but I think I found one:
(puts on flame retardant suit)
That’s right. MSFT’s stock as been stagnant since the internet bubble. Quite amazing, since it has been accruing billions in cash for all those years, yet everyone seems afraid of the lawsuits and European fines.
I am going to try to get it at a bargain price, but honestly, I am afraid it may not stay stagnant much longer. I want to buy at 25.75, it is currently at 26.86. The more I think about it, the more my stomach turns with queezy anticipation, because the old feeling is back… I know I am right.
(I have had this feeling on two other occasions, once for AMD, and once for Starbucks IPO)
The other stock I was looking at was PCAR (Paccar, maker of Kentworth and Peterbuilt trucks) because i know back in the early nineties, when fuel was cheap, they still were working on making their trucks more fuel efficient, and had some ugly looking trucks… only to have them blend in with the autos of 2000+ that came out years later. In today’s high fuel price climate, I think Paccar is well prepared.
MSFT’s P/E = about 23
PCAR’s P/E = about 11
And what about my darling AMD? Well I got out with 200% profit. Had I stayed, I would have picked up 400% profit. (Of course I would have dropped out when it hit about $17 about a year ago). But what bothers me about AMD today?
It’s P/E is 332.50!
Intel, (INTC) has a p/e of only 20, and it has a price of a mere $26, another stock that has been stagnant for the past 5 years pretty much, yet accruing cash.
So, NeOmegas picks:
INTC, MSFT and PCAR.
(I don’t own any of these yet, nor do any of my family members)
I want to get out before 2007 though, because a billionaire I admire, George Soros, is predicting a hard recession may begin in 2007, due to a “hard landing”, based mostly on a a real estate bust… and that is about when I look into buying a house.
EDIT: ended up buying INTC at 25.73 a share… lets see how it goes…