The future of blender after 2.8

With the massive changes come on the core system of blender and the UI how you think the industry will embrace blender? It will still remain a software for hobist and those who want a free software?
Or they will stand on his feet and become a real competitor against Maya,3ds max ,cinema 4d

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Blender already used in industry… sure perhaps it’s share not as large as Max or Maya, but it’s not “hobist” software.

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I guess big companies won’t switch that easily because of years of working with the same software and in-house tools they developped to work with their core app.
But for smaller companies or individuals I’m sure they’ll get more and more interested as blender grow.
As said Blender is already used on commercial projects for a long time. It’s a very valid option depending on the project your working on.

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As much as we want Blender to be adopted by larger companies, as mentioned by sozap, that is not going to happen due to the deeply established pipelines these companies have for production. But they are actively experimenting with it. Form pre-visualization, or other small parts.

Problem is that we won’t really know the details of what software they use as it is closely guarded information to ensure they stay on the top.

For all we know each of the bigger companies already use Blender, but we’ll not know for some time.

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well, 10 years ago no one used houdini either and now its a big and important part in every studio.
times change, workflows change, people change.

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Point taken.

The thing is that in a way Ton’s drive is individual artists and smaller stuidos, and that’s how Blender is in a way being promoted. Unlike houdini.

At least that is what I get form his last interview. I love his quote : “I don’t care about money” (or something like that - will verify and update)

I’m not sure how large dev team is for Houdini, but somehow I expect it to be far larger then Blenders. And quick Q. is Houdini open sources, based on their site it does not feel so. And with the cost of the license, vs Blender’s free approach.

Different mentalities. Luckily it is the studios that make decisions so it is up to them to see if they can potentially use Blender to supplement their work

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A widely adopted, and open, exchange format would help, but until blender becomes non-GPL and provides a native plugin API, I can’t see wide-spread rapid industry adoption. Alternatively, the industry tools, plugins, and utilities become GPL, which is about as likely as my internet service improving in the next 30 years.

New code from the ground up for Blender 3 with a different license model could change that, but how far away would that be… 10 years? 15? 30? But by that time, the totalitarian control-freak police state might not even allow possession of a computer or a compiler, or anything else, sans a camera and GPS shoved up your backside.

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No, Houdini is not open source. It was just a example of how fast pipelines can change given enough reasons to. And open source is already used every day in every company. For example: Linux, VLC, Firefox, Thunderbird, Python, OCIO, OSL, Alembic, OpenVDB, OpenFX, OpenSubdiv, Ptex, OpenEXR, Cryptomatte, Bullet, … and so on.
Until now Blender wasn’t widely used in those companies because a) it simply wasn’t good enough and b) not enough artists knew how to use it. As simple as that. So it wouldn’t have made sense to integrate it, really. And i talked to a few studios already about software licensing stuff and, who would have thought, they don’t like paying thousands of dollars for software either. My guess is that we will see a wider adoption of Blender in the next few years. Lets see.

Profesional interest on Blender has been increasing exponentially this 2 last years, and think that still versión 2.8 has not been officially released. have a tread were post this kind of interest on profesional media link
For the future paradoxically i think that a good direction would be a kind of “low cost” Blender, and cost is not about money, but is about time and learning effort. Today aproaches of simplifiying Blender are about: “try to make ALL Blender more easy” but nowadays, ALL is too much. with “low cost” releases i mean releases that would be far more simple, and with less capabilityes. something like project 101, but going still very far on lowering complexity. for example a blender for school children would be a good objetive. and a way to get massive future base users.

Still going to be small to medium studios. For bigger studio adoption physics overhaul is needed.

Why does it matter? Blender is great and improving all the time. I prefer it to the competition and that’s what matters to me, not whether it’s used by big studios. It seems to be doing fine for funding and development so long may it continue

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There are Blender nerds already at studios, you even have this recent tweet

Slow and steady it will be adopted more and more often.

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21 posts were split to a new topic: GPL Discussion

I think Blender is going to do quite well in the near future.

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10 years from now people are gonna be like, remember autodesk?

Though I wish it was true… probalby a lot longer then 10 years. Though I keep hoping.

i think in the end of day if blender remain and keep the strong position that have in the last 2 years will be and are- a very good competitor
you dont need to be always first to be great

Blender is a fantastic modeling tool with a great renderer. But if your job in the pipeline falls outside of those two areas, it’s going to be hard to convince you that it’s worth the time and effort. Real team production requires a lot of things that Blender either does poorly or doesn’t do at all at the moment, and until those things are addressed it will never see wide adoption.

can you tell us what is the things blender lucks in real team production?
iam intrested to know

Technically autodesk revenue for their software outside of CAD is like 15%, I don’t see that number going up, 10 years seems about right.

Their CAD software is fundamentally crucial to the bulk of their revenue, they could slowly let everything else die and focus on CAD, manufactoring, engineering, etc…,

Which i see as a likely outcome.

Open source is the future.