80% of people may just have a nothing more than man-flu for a week or so but 20% will get a much worse illness that requires medical intervention and 5% will need critical care.
If this virus is left to go through the population like seasonal flu we’d have numbers of sick would overwhelm medical services. Many more of the 20% group would end up needing critical care and many more critical cases would die.
It’s a massive numbers game in a game of life.
Boris seems to want to let the contagion run through the British population, take it on the chin (1.5 - 2.0 million dead) and save the UK economy by having a shorter sharper shock. I don’t think parks and sports grounds filled with bodies awaiting cremation will be a particularly good look for him.
If the hospitals won’t be able to cope neither will the funeral services.
Demographic can be deceiving. It’s not the age, exactly. Highest risk are those already in an illness conditions. If you have diabetes, and other illness conditions, you are seriously risking. That’s the reason why elder people dies most. They already have others comorbidity factors.
Next are others. “Paziente Uno” the first guy hit in northern Italy just awoke from 18 days pharmacological coma . A 38 years old manager.
I remember another guys, an actor, if I’m not mistaken, who being a sport guy its whole life complained from the hospital room he could hardly breathe under oxygen… I can’t track the post back, read that on the phone.
In the end… who is going to toss the coin? Better to be safe than sorry.
Only kids appear immune. It looks like the virus requires a full fledge mature body to express at its peak…
Yup. Heard someone on the radio from a crematorium being interviewed the other day. Small crematoriums that can handle one body at a time could deal with 16 bodies a day running round the clock 24 hours. There are about 300 crematoria in the UK. The average number of cremations carried out by each is 1600 a year - so 4 or 5 a day. It would take them over 300 days running 24/7 to deal with 1.5 million deaths, not even accounting for “normal” deaths, staff sickness, transportation and storage. Mass grave and quicklime time I fear.
It will be interesting to look at obesity. Clinical obesity in China and Asia is next to non-existent. In the western world not so much. Obesity is a risk factor for normal seasonal influenza with poorer outcomes and longer recovery times. I wonder how this will factor in. I wonder if there’s a statistical correlation between how much toilet paper people are panic buying and how much food they are commonly consuming?
Can we do here something as forum for people our friends Blender users in quarantine or mild ill . I am beginner but I like to think in that direction? You all have more experience. What is most fun? We could make best special challenges? Now will lot people sit home and I guess there will not be lot of work. Lot of dark thoughts. Let us use our skills to make something fun, learn and share. What do you think? To inspire one another? Like inktober, sculptober? hahaha quarantinober, Shit it can be longer of month
Geez, I don’t know if start laughing or not…
Yes, of course I forgot mentioning obesity, heart disorders… most thing people doesn’t seem to get is it’s not a cold, it’s a pneumonia… I bet most of people never had one… it’s much more harsh and evidently dangerous than a cold… think those illness of the old, f.i. tuberculosis…
Yeah, its not like the humanity will be extinct or something… only millions of people will die and all the health systems on the planet will collapse for a while.
But I still dont get how buying toilet paper will help, I would be buying alcohol gel and soap.
I read diarrhea is a possible symptom of the virus.
This might not be the reason they’re buying it for, but this might end up being the reason they will be glad they did.
0.2%? It’s currently got a mortality rate of 7%, if you look at closed or resolved cases. In other words, out of all of the people confirmed to have got it 7% are dead. You could argue that if the real number of cases (untested) is actually 10x the reported figure then the mortality rate is only 0.7%, but that’s just guesswork. It doesn’t really matter. It’s virulent, spreads rapidly and will be enough to cause the collapse of medical services even in advanced western economies.
Having said all that 0.2% of the population of the planet is over 15 million people.
I don’t know what you are reading, but find somewhere more informed. Symptoms are: Fever, dry cough and often shortness of breath.
Anything else like sneezing, runny nose, headaches, diarrhea is mostly probably something else.
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Renzatic
(Professor Emeritus Billy H. Wafflesmith XIV Esq.)
117
The way you were talking about globalization in relation to the spread of this virus confused me a bit, as it’s not due to economic globalization issues. The vast majority of the vectors here have been vacationers bringing it home with them after traveling abroad.
As far as economics go, yeah, we need to distance ourselves from China a little more. It should be obvious to anyone by this point that our continuing relationship with them won’t us any favors in the long term.
The good news is we’re not dependent on them. The US is still the 2nd largest manufacturer in the world, and we have the capabilities to fill any voids that would arise were we to divorce ourselves from China economically.
The problem is we can’t do thing as cheaply as China does, since we have a workforce that expects to be paid more than the sweatshop wages the Chinese government doles out there. It’s our addiction to cheap computers, cheap TVs, cheap car parts that keep us tethered to them, and will be the one biggest hurdle we’ll have to overcome if we were to switch back to doing things domestically.
We were talking about the young cases. The claim was 35% of the young and 60% or something like that. That number was wrong. 7% is the average.
80+ years old21.9%14.8% 70-79 years old8.0% 60-69 years old3.6% 50-59 years old1.3% 40-49 years old0.4% 30-39 years old0.2% 20-29 years old0.2% 10-19 years old0.2% 0-9 years oldno fatalities
Renzatic
(Professor Emeritus Billy H. Wafflesmith XIV Esq.)
119
Okay, so there are now infections one county down from me, and one county up. I guess today will be the first official day of my voluntary quarantine.
He’s not completely off base with diarrhea. It’s rare but some people indeed have it. Even fever one of the three cardinal symptoms is “only” prevalent in about 90 percent of people. Wiki has all the percentages. Wiki-Link
Found the intro with Blue Oyster cult’s Don’t fear the reaper always pretty powerful, the series not so much lol
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Renzatic
(Professor Emeritus Billy H. Wafflesmith XIV Esq.)
121
The first part is…okay. Not great, but not so terrible it’s unwatchable. I can’t ever bring myself to go through the second half though, not even for the kitsch.
