Whats ur Presidential election prediction

So your answer begs the question, why did you call it close, “even here?”

true, true, but if kerry is elected, i wont be drafted…

Son, you ain’t got no idea what a guns for.

I’m gonna hunt you like all them minoraties and things. The devil’s done got a hold of you and all them other librals.

Damn you Democrats! You’s the reason why’s I can’t have no more younguns! It’s all yer fault!

Yeah… for four years perhaps.

As sad as it is, Bush is going to win, and everyone who votes for him is a tool who doesn’t yet know it. He appreciates you though, here he is thanking his supporters for putting him in power.

Here’s my two cents:

I’m an american, ex service member (10 years service) and have lived in europe for the last 8 years (3 while in the army) as well as 5 years in S. Korea growing up, so I feel I have a peretty good grasp of the US Reputation overseas. SinceI was a kid, I have never seen Americas reputation so low overseas, regardless of what bush is saying about the “coalition”, our reputation is terribly damaged. As a true, patriotic american who dearly loves his country, I have just ONE concern. AMERICA! Before the war, I would walk down the streets of frankfurt, nurnburg, copenhagen, venice and many more and feel safe, welcomed and respected just because I was an amrican. Today, you have to keep a low profile, flaunting your patriotism can possibly get your ass kicked. The current world opinion (and regardless of what Bush or anyone else says, it is VERY important fo r our future to have strong allies and reputation) makes it quite obvious that we need a change, to continue downt this path will end worse than anyone can imagine. I also feel that stateside contitions are degrading, education, healthcare, employment…the list goes on. What good is it waging wars overseas, and spreading foreign policy if our citizens back home are suffering? This election is the most important since the civil war, it will decide our future for decades to come and can be dangerous if undertaken with a persons political affiliation ahead of their intillect. I’m not saying vote for Kerry (though I have), I’m just saying think about the consequences.

Someone want to explain this:

http://blender.spaceisbig.com/polls.gif

Note: All of the mainstream American news sources I could find report Bush being ahead in the polls by a point (at least) but the BBC website reports him being behind three points using the same poll data that USA Today gives him a two point lead with.

Links:

USA Today

BBC

Draw your own conclusions but its either the BBC hates Bush or the mainstream news sources like him (which doesn’t seem to be the case with every organization).

i cant seem to find it but there is a pole that started in 1904 and has never been wrong since. They predict Kerry. google it. im too tired right now.

When I took a statistics class I found out that there is a lot more to it than just reporting the numbers. You must consider the people you’ve polled and factor in the people you haven’t, besides calculating a margin of error. That’s why two people can take the same data and draw different conclusions - they may have different opinions on the accuracy of the data or perhaps not report inaccuracy at all.

The Redskins lost yesterday sunday, so Bush is going to loose. It’s a sure bet. :slight_smile:

Martin

Don’t talk smack about the 'skins :smiley: (skins fan)
The way i was seeing it Bush has 217 electoral votes in the bag. Kerry has 190 votes in the bag. You need 270 to win. Florida is 27, Ohio is 20 and Pennsylvania is around 21 i think. Also the great lakes states have 10+ each so the voters in those states will decide the election.

My bet is that bush get Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Wisconsin and Kerry gets Pennsylvania and the other Great Lakes states and New Mexico. If that’s the case (bush wins ohio/florida) Bush has won the election. If Kerry is going to win he needs one of those 2 states.

IMO the national polls don’t mean much because the states elect the president. Its the state polls that are valuable to gauge who is going to win.

for the americans who can vote: go vote. it doesnt matter for me what you vote but please make shure your vote isnt lost.

im taking bets now. pm me the name of the candidate who you think is going to win :stuck_out_tongue: .

what about al sharptone? we didn’t heard anything from him… is he running at all?

no he is doing heavy campaigning for Kerry. Well Today is the day.

Just read the above

This election is the most important since the civil war, it will decide our future for decades to come and can be dangerous if undertaken with a persons political affiliation ahead of their intillect.

I don’t think it is really. Sorry i might be off base but if kerry wins or Bush wins life goes on. Both of the will have to face a poor global image, terroism, and dealing with an uncoorporative UN. Life goes and the world will move ahead. I think we americans think that our election is the most important thing in the world and that the world revolves around us. It’s a little condecending. Don’t get me wrong I think that the election today is very important, but we don’t run the world.

SinceI was a kid, I have never seen Americas reputation so low overseas, regardless of what bush is saying about the “coalition”, our reputation is terribly damaged…I’m not saying vote for Kerry (though I have), I’m just saying think about the consequences.

Yea I agree. You have to get involved but be concerned what people think about you as well. It’s a fine line. And I don’t think that reputation (if it ever existed) will be restored by whoever becomes president. No one has a magic wand that they can wave and make the world become a safer place and americans will always have their own interests at heart. The best hope for a better reputation is responsible action on our part and a stable world where peace can bring prosperity. It’s how to achieve that which is the real question.

It’s not that I think the election is unimportant (i think it’s a civic responsiblity) but the rhetoric is this election is crazy. I think that Kerry (if elected) will have to deal with the same issues. He will have to find a way to get out of Iraq without letting it degenerate into a civil war. He will have to hunt Osama Bin Laden. He will have to go to the UN and ask for support in Iraq so americans don’t have to foot the bill for reconstruction there. He will have to be nice to our ‘coalition’ and smile and shake hands with Hamid Karzi and promise to defend free elections in afganistan. In other words he is not going to be vastly different. Where I think Kerry WILL be drastically different is on domestic policy - taxes, funding, education, welfare, healthcare, etc. And frankly IMO the foreign policy issue is a red herring for domestic reform.

(Just my opinion :expressionless: )

I’ve noticed another thing that ppl dont realize. The president dont have all the power. it has to pass through congress first. They cant just make laws.

One more thing, the terrorist wouldnt touch us during the election. they want bush out of there. (so does half of america)

but with the president comes the filling of the congress (or the senate. i dont know what Americans are voting for other than the president). actually its the other way around but hey.
also the president is the billboard to the outside world. (and a stupid looking, mushroom planting Texan doesnt look good i think)

Just a bit of interesting stats:

there are 33 (yes, Thirty-three) mathematical combination between the battle-ground states that would result in the fine electoral count to be 269-269

in this event, the House of Representatives chooses the president, and the Senate chooses the Vice PResident. since the HOus will mainly be Republican, bush would probably be re-elected. however, the Senate is seen to be more Democratic, so they would likely elect John Edwards as the Vice President.

So, in theory, we could end up with Bush as our President and Edwards as our Vice President

scary, huh?

~Delta

My understanding is that if it is a “draw” or if its very close, the result of the election will be decided by the US courts and not the House of Representatives.

This is what the bbc are reporting:

My understanding is that if it is a “draw” or if its very close, the result of the election will be decided by the US courts and not the House of Representatives.

This is what the bbc are reporting:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3955757.stm[/quote]
I think it’s just the house of representatives, they can’t have a tie in that anyway because they have an odd number of people.